Head of ConocoPhillips sad that break-even price of shale oil production is around $65-75 per barrel

Shale oil production will reach a plateau by the end of the decade, unless there is a technological breakthrough, but do not bet against the United States, said Ryan M. Lance, head of American ConocoPhillips, during the Qatar Economic Forum.

He expressed the opinion that the break-even price of shale oil production in the United States has not changed much due to trade duties, in particular, on steel. “I think in the long run, if oil prices are in a comfortable range, maybe at $70 per barrel or $65-75 per barrel, we will still see continued modest growth from the United States,“ Lance said.

According to him, with the current oil price below $60 per barrel, the United States is beginning to reach a plateau in shale oil production, and at a price of about $50 per barrel, “we will probably start to reduce production.“

“So there is a kind of equilibrium place even in the United States that allows shale to continue its maturity and its growth, but we are seeing a plateau in production, you know, probably by the end of this decade, production in the United States, unless there is another technological breakthrough in our business. And don‘t bet against our industry, because we are pretty good at trying to find ways to extract more from the underground wealth that exists in our country,“ said the head of ConocoPhillips.

At the same time, answering the question of when the peak of shale oil production in the United States will be reached, Lance said that it will depend on the price, and stable in the long term, rather than the current volatile spikes.

According to him, if the price of oil rises to a comfortable $70 per barrel and above, then oil production in the United States may exceed 14 million b/d from the current 13.3–13.4 million b/d.