Stocks Surge on Ceasefire Signals, Notching Best Day in Months

Stocks staged a powerful rebound in the final session of March, driven by growing optimism that the U.S. and Iran may be moving toward a resolution of the conflict that has weighed on markets and pushed energy prices sharply higher.

The S&P 500 jumped 2.9%, the Nasdaq Composite surged 3.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.5%, marking one of the strongest sessions of the year. Despite the rally, all three major indices still closed the month down between 4.8% and 5.5%, reflecting the persistent pressure from geopolitical tensions since the conflict began at the end of February.

Markets opened higher after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump is willing to end U.S. military operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed—a notable shift aimed at preventing a prolonged conflict. Momentum accelerated midday following a CNBC report that Iranian leadership expressed readiness to end the war under certain conditions, with confirmation from European officials.

The combination of these developments sparked a broad-based rally, with risk appetite returning across asset classes. Oil prices, which had been a major headwind, retreated modestly, with crude settling 1.7% lower at $101.15 per barrel.

The pullback in oil weighed on the energy sector, which declined 1.1%, while defensive areas such as utilities (-0.1%) and consumer staples (flat) lagged as investors rotated back into growth and cyclical names.

Communication services led the advance with a 4.4% gain, powered by strong rebounds in mega-cap names. Meta Platforms and Alphabet both rallied sharply, extending their recovery from last week’s sell-off tied to legal developments.

Technology stocks also delivered outsized gains, with the sector rising 4.2%. NVIDIA led a broad rebound in semiconductors, helping push the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 6.2%. onsemi was among the standout performers, posting double-digit gains.

Cyclically sensitive industries tied to fuel costs also benefited from the stabilization in oil prices. United Airlines and Carnival surged, reflecting improved sentiment toward travel demand.

The rally extended beyond large caps. The Russell 2000 climbed 3.4%, while the S&P MidCap 400 gained 2.8%, highlighting a broad-based improvement in risk appetite.

Overall, the session marked a significant shift in tone, with markets responding quickly to even tentative signs of de-escalation. The S&P 500 recorded its strongest single-day gain since last May, offering a meaningful reprieve after weeks of sustained pressure.

That said, uncertainty remains elevated. Oil prices are still holding above $100 per barrel, and the geopolitical situation remains fluid. From a technical perspective, the major indices continue to trade below their 200-day moving averages, though today’s rally brought them notably closer to those key levels as the market heads into the second quarter.

Our FTinvest 11 model portfolio surged 2.18% to close at 970.07, marking a strong rebound and the largest single-day gain in recent weeks. The move lifts the portfolio further away from the recent consolidation range and signals renewed upward momentum, though it remains below the all-time high of 1,039.51.

Based on the start-of-year level of 928.18, FTinvest 11 is now up approximately +4.51% year-to-date, reflecting a solid recovery from the March correction. The sharp bounce highlights the portfolio’s resilience and reinforces the strength of its disciplined, value-driven strategy as it heads into April.