Markets Whipsaw on Oil Spike and Ceasefire Doubts, End Session Near Flatline

The major averages navigated a volatile session as fading optimism around a potential U.S.–Iran ceasefire gave way to renewed geopolitical tension and a sharp spike in oil prices. Despite a weak open, stocks recovered steadily throughout the day, leaving the S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%) little changed by the close.

Equities opened under pressure after President Trump signaled that U.S. military strikes against Iran would continue absent a deal. The escalation sent crude oil sharply higher, with futures surging $11.34 (+11.3%) to settle at $111.48 per barrel—reigniting inflation concerns and weighing on early risk sentiment.

However, the tone shifted quickly. A Bloomberg report indicating that Iran and Oman are working on a proposal to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz helped stabilize markets. Within the first hour, the major averages had erased losses of more than 1%, returning to flatline levels.

From there, trading activity turned subdued, with indices drifting sideways as investors digested the latest geopolitical developments. Sector performance was mixed, with six of eleven S&P 500 sectors finishing higher.

The real estate sector led the advance, climbing 1.5% as Treasury yields stabilized after early volatility. Technology also provided late-session support, with the information technology sector rising 0.7%. After opening sharply lower, the group staged a steady recovery, aided by resilience in semiconductors. The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished modestly higher, with Intel standing out among gainers.

Optical and networking names were among the session’s top performers, including Ciena, Lumentum, and Coherent Corp., all posting strong advances.

On the downside, the consumer discretionary sector declined 1.5%, pressured in part by weakness in Tesla following a disappointing Q1 delivery update. The stock’s decline weighed on broader sentiment within the sector.

Beyond large caps, smaller stocks outperformed. The Russell 2000 gained 0.7%, while the S&P MidCap 400 finished near unchanged.

Despite the day’s volatility, the major averages remain higher on a week-to-date basis. However, they continue to trade below their 200-day moving averages, highlighting an unresolved technical backdrop.

This week’s rebound has largely been driven by short-term improvements in geopolitical sentiment and oversold conditions. Still, persistent uncertainty surrounding Iran and elevated oil prices continue to cap upside and reinforce a cautious tone.

Looking ahead, markets face a data-heavy week that includes key inflation reports—critical inputs for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Trading will pause tomorrow in observance of Good Friday, leaving investors to reassess positioning ahead of the long weekend.

Our FTinvest 11 model portfolio slipped 0.15% to close at 970.64, pausing after several sessions of gains. The portfolio remains below its all-time high of 1,039.51, with recent movement reflecting a mild consolidation following the late-March rebound.

Based on the start-of-year level of 928.18, FTInvest 11 is now up approximately +4.57% year-to-date, maintaining solid performance despite minor day-to-day fluctuations. The portfolio continues to demonstrate stability, supported by its disciplined, value-driven approach as it moves further into Q2.