Stocks Drift Higher in Quiet Start to Week as Ceasefire Uncertainty Lingers

The stock market opened the week on a steady note, with the S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.4%) posting modest gains in a low-volatility session defined by a narrow trading range.

A lack of meaningful developments on the geopolitical front helped keep both equities and energy markets relatively contained. Reports from Axios indicated that the U.S. and Iran are engaged in mediated discussions around a potential 45-day ceasefire, although subsequent headlines suggested Iran is not inclined to pursue a temporary arrangement. The absence of clarity kept investors cautious but prevented any sharp directional moves.

During a midday press conference, President Trump reiterated that failure to reach an agreement by Tuesday evening could result in strikes targeting Iranian infrastructure. While the comments briefly pressured equities, the reaction proved short-lived, with the major averages quickly stabilizing and returning to modest gains.

In the energy market, crude oil continued to grind higher, with futures settling up $0.77 (+0.7%) at $112.25 per barrel. The incremental move reflected ongoing geopolitical risk without signaling a meaningful escalation.

Sector performance was broadly positive, albeit subdued. The consumer discretionary sector led the advance, rising 0.8% as widespread gains across its components offset weakness in Tesla, which declined following recent pressure. The energy sector matched that performance, supported by the uptick in oil prices.

Technology shares also contributed, with the information technology sector gaining 0.5%. Strength was particularly notable in memory and storage names after Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its bullish stance on the group. Seagate Technology and Western Digital both posted solid advances, helping lift the PHLX Semiconductor Index by 1.1%.

On the downside, defensive and commodity-linked sectors lagged. Utilities, health care, and materials each declined modestly, reflecting a slight tilt toward risk assets without a decisive rotation.

Beyond large caps, smaller stocks tracked the broader market. The Russell 2000 and S&P MidCap 400 both gained 0.4%, underscoring the session’s balanced participation.

Corporate news was relatively light, though merger activity drew some attention. Neurocrine Biosciences agreed to acquire Soleno Therapeutics in a cash deal valued at $53 per share, sending Soleno sharply higher.

Overall, the session reflected a market in wait-and-see mode. While there remains cautious optimism that a last-minute ceasefire could materialize, the lack of concrete progress continues to cap upside momentum. The S&P 500 and Dow remain just below their 200-day moving averages, while the Nasdaq Composite continues to lag, leaving the broader technical backdrop unresolved as investors await the next catalyst.

Our FTinvest 11 model portfolio edged up 0.03% to close at 971.67, posting a nearly flat session as the portfolio continues to stabilize after its recent recovery. The index remains below its all-time high of 1,039.51, with current movement reflecting a period of low volatility and consolidation.

Based on the start-of-year level of 928.18, FTinvest 11 is now up approximately +4.69% year-to-date, maintaining steady gains despite recent sideways trading. The portfolio’s disciplined, value-driven approach continues to support its resilience as it navigates a more subdued market environment.